Bagdad, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

742
FXUS65 KVEF 110319
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
815 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above-normal temperatures continue through the first half of the
  upcoming week, with Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories in
  effect.

* Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mainly along and
  southeast of Interstate 15, with the best chances Wednesday
  through Saturday.
&&

.DISCUSSION...through Sunday. Early afternoon satellite loop showed
thin cirrus zipping southward through the eastern half of our CWA, a
few flat cumulus over Mohave, southern Clark, and eastern San
Bernardino counties, and deeper cumulus lurking nearby over the San
Bernardino Mountains and Joshua Tree National Park. High resolution
models suggest the deeper cumulus will develop into isolated
thunderstorms later this afternoon. Otherwise, hot and dry weather
expected through Tuesday. The Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories look good as Major HeatRisk (and splotches of Extreme)
expands Monday as high pressure noses in from the Pacific, pushes
farther north Tuesday as the high moves overhead, then contracts
Wednesday and Thursday as heights fall and attention turns to
thunderstorm potential. Multiple times this summer, the NBM has
erroneously spread thunderstorm chances westward into our eastern
CWA, but this time there seems to be a solid meteorological basis
for it. The aforementioned heat wave will create a low level thermal
low over the deserts. As upper level low pressure moves into
southern Canada midweek, weak troughing hangs back over central
California Thursday and Friday - not exactly strong enough to
trigger lee-side surface low development, but it could help to
maintain or slightly deepen the originally-thermal low. This will
set up surface pressure gradients over our area which will turn the
low level flow more southerly or even southeasterly, pulling one
inch precipitable water as far north as Laughlin beginning
Wednesday. This will fuel thunderstorm chances primarily from the
Colorado River Valley eastward Wednesday and Thursday, potentially
expanding into Lincoln and Clark counties Friday and Saturday before
getting pushed back east on Sunday. The GFS also shows very dry air
associated with the upper level troughing pushing in from the west,
possibly setting up a sharp gradient between moist air to the east
and dry air to the west - what has been informally called a desert
dryline scenario. These have been associated with severe weather in
the past, although the weak upper level flow and lack of dynamic
support would not favor it this time.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
Southwest to occasional west winds are expected through much of the
overnight period with speeds generally around 8-10 knots. We should
also see a period of light and variable winds early Monday morning.
Light northeasterly winds should return late Monday morning, and
could persist all day until shifting back to southwest around
sunset. No operationally significant clouds or weather expected at
the terminal, although wildfire smoke could reduce slantwise
visibility aloft. Temperature falling below 100F around 04Z this
evening and back above 100F from roughly 18Z to 04Z tomorrow,
peaking around 108F.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Wind gusts generally 15
knots or less areawide Monday, although some gusts to around 20
knots are possible near KDAG. Lofted smoke across San Bernardino
County and far southern Nevada may reduce slantwise visibility at
times.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Gorelow

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